Algebra I is often described as a gateway course: students who succeed in it are more likely to pursue advanced math, finish college, and earn higher incomes as adults. Yet for many children, the foundation for success in Algebra I is laid years before they actually take the class. Third grade math scores can serve as a strong predictor of which students will eventually pass Algebra I and which may face difficulties. A recent working paper that analyzed test results from more than 1.7 million students in Texas examined this trend. It discovered that differences in Algebra I pass rates between low-income, Black, and Hispanic students and their more affluent, white, and Asian peers are largely linked to how well students master early, fundamental math concepts. Third grade math scores represent the earliest point at which researchers can gauge how effectively children are absorbing early math skills, noted Ben Backes, a principal economist at the American Institutes for Research and a co-author of the study. However, “education doesn’t start in third grade,” he added—those foundational abilities are developed much earlier.
Other studies have highlighted the link between early achievement and later academic success, but this research—conducted by AIR and the National Center for the Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research, or CALDER—focused specifically on Algebra I because of the course’s critical role for students.
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The study also captured how the pandemic disrupted the academic progress of certain students. For instance, low-income students who initially had test scores comparable to their more affluent peers fell further behind. Students with already low test scores experienced a sharper decline in their math abilities relative to those with higher scores.
Policymakers have explored other strategies to improve Algebra I pass rates, such as postponing the course until ninth grade or requiring all students to take it. However, these approaches may not address the underlying issue, the authors concluded: “Our results underscore the importance of targeting resources to early elementary math instruction, especially for low-achieving students.”
Yet that message still needs to reach school leaders, according to Deborah Stipek, the faculty director for Development and Research in Early Mathematics Education, a network of scholars focused on enhancing math instruction for young children.
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In California, for example, education majors take two or three courses on teaching reading but only one on math education, said Stipek, a professor emerita at Stanford University. Moreover, in a recent survey of nearly 100 California superintendents, the majority ranked English language arts as their top instructional priority; math came in third.
There are instructional tools available to help teachers who may have a few students lagging behind their peers. But “in places where you have a very large group of kids that are living in poverty or learning English, you have classrooms where the majority of kids by first grade are way behind,” Stipek said. “We need more and better teaching, in general.”
This story about early math was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education. Sign up for the Hechinger newsletter.
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